​Key Takeaways:​

  • The End of the "World Policeman": The transition from U.S. unipolarity to a transactional "America First" foreign policy has left allies and global norms in flux.

  • The Rise of Middle Powers: States like the Gulf nations, Ethiopia, and India are now driving regional politics, prioritizing national interests over traditional liberal norms.​

  • Thirty years after ICG's establishment, conditions in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine offer little hope that we have learned anything from Rwanda and Srebrenica.

  • Mediation in Crisis: With comprehensive peace deals becoming a thing of the past, peacemakers are shifting toward incremental change and managing the fallout of "internationalized" civil wars.

  • A Warning from Africa: conflicts have almost doubled since 2013, 42 and a growing number of overlapping crises are threatening to spin out of control.​