Shift from Liberal Peace to Political Survival: Peacemaking has moved away from 1990s-era "liberal peace" goals—such as democratization and development—toward "political survival," where mediators prioritize short-term stabilization and security pacts for regime leaders.
The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) - a set of norms and structures developed and designed to assist the African Union in managing its peace and security affairs- has collapsed. The AU surrendered strategic leadership, and Ethiopia has surrendered its role as the anchor of regional peace and security.
The Horn of Africa has been integrated within the Red Sea Arena as a strategic periphery of the Arab Gulf states, with the new middle powers of the Middle East becoming the drivers of political and military outcomes.
Rise of the "Political Marketplace": Politics and peace in the Horn of Africa increasingly operate as a transactional "marketplace" where allegiance and sovereignty are traded as commodities, opening the door to a model of peacemaking in which the political settlement is ancillary to a commercial deal, for example, contracts for minerals or construction.
Radical changes have occurred in peacemaking, including a possible collapse in confidence in mediation as such. Norms of inclusion, human rights, humanitarian principles and democracy are vanishing. While discreet payouts and secret military and business pacts have long played a part in peace processes, they were relegated to the background; now they are becoming the main event, with the barest pretense otherwise.