In the early hours of 18 March, intensive Israeli air raids and shelling throughout the Gaza Strip has killed more than 400 Palestinians, and wounded hundreds more, in the space of several hours. How did we get here?
In January the incoming Trump administration forced Israel to accept a ceasefire proposal that had been largely formulated by the Israeli government and unveiled in late May 2024 by US President Joe Biden.
At Israel's insistence it was not a comprehensive agreement that would see each party simultaneously implement all of its obligations in reciprocal fashion, but rather a process consisting of three stages.
The first stage, lasting 42 days, comprises a suspension of hostilities, a limited exchange of captives, a limited Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, free movement for Palestinians forcibly displaced from their homes to return to their communities, and a surge in humanitarian supplies to the Gaza Strip.
The key elements of the agreement's second stage are a completion of the exchange of captives, a durable ceasefire, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, including from its border with Egypt. Since the mechanisms to reach these objectives are not specified, the agreement states that negotiations on the details of the second stage would commence on the 16th day of the first stage, and that hostilities would not be resumed by either party while these negotiations continued, even if they drag on past the end of the first phase. (The agreement's third phase mainly concerns reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.)
Israel had proposed this agreement on the assumption that Hamas, which had since December 2023 repeatedly insisted on a formal cessation of hostilities and a comprehensive Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip at the very outset of any agreement, would reject it.
When, contrary to expectations, Hamas accepted the agreement in early July 2024, Israel responded with a slew of new conditions: it demanded to retain permanent control of the Gaza-Egypt border zone and a buffer zone within the Gaza Strip, rejected a formal cessation of hostilities, and introduced various other additions designed for rejection by Hamas. In doing so, Israel received the full and unconditional support of the Biden administration for its shenanigans, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and other officials dutifully, and repeatedly, stated that the only reason the agreement had not been consummated was because Hamas had yet to accept it.
After Trump won the November 2024 US presidential election, he tasked his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, with securing an agreement. His main motivation appears to have been avoiding a foreign policy crisis during his 20 January inauguration. With Jimmy Carter much in the news after his death in late December, Trump particularly wanted to avoid being overshadowed by the fate of US citizens held captive in the Gaza Strip. It took Witkoff, who has no previous diplomatic experience, literally one meeting with Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's fugitive prime minister, to bring Israel aboard. In other words, for over half a year Biden refused to make the single phone call that would have achieved the same result.
Trump's belligerent threats about “all hell breaking loose" notwithstanding, no pressure was needed on Hamas because, contrary to the Biden administration's hasbara campaign, it had already endorsed the agreement half a year earlier.
Almost immediately, it became apparent that Israel's primary objective was to avoid implementation of the second stage of the agreement. A full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and formal ceasefire would mean that Israel's genocidal campaign had concluded without the “total victory" repeatedly touted by Netanyahu, leaving Hamas weakened rather than destroyed and still in control of the Gaza Strip.
A cessation of hostilities would additionally result in the collapse of the Israeli government. The Kahanist Jewish Power faction led by Itamar Ben-Gvir had already bolted the governing coalition in protest at the prospect of a potential end to the slaughter, and the similarly genocidal Religious Zionism faction led by Bezalel Smotrich insisted it would leave the coalition the moment Netanyahu agreed to a formal ceasefire as stipulated in the agreement's second phase.
Losing power will also have personal repercussions for Netanyahu, as he will become much more vulnerable to the myriad corruption scandals and trials surrounding him. (The International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued in his name is by contrast a trivial concern, since Netanyahu can rely on the protection of his Western sponsors and allies to escape accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity.)
It was an open secret, and widely reported, that Netanyahu, who was dragged kicking and screaming into the January agreement by Witkoff, would stop at nothing to avoid entering its second stage, scheduled for early March. As could and should have been anticipated, Israel from the outset began slow-walking, only partially fulfilling, or simply reneging on its various commitments, particularly with respect to permitting the entry of humanitarian aid and supplies to the Gaza Strip as detailed in the January agreement. It also quickly resumed the killing of Palestinians, including of course children, medical workers, and journalists. Prior to the latest bombings, it had killed more than 120 Palestinians, an average of more than two a day, since the suspension of hostilities came into force in mid-January.
Lest Israel's intentions be questioned, Netanyahu additionally proclaimed his refusal to negotiate the implementation of the second stage of the January agreement. He instead proposed that Hamas release all remaining captives, disarm, and permanently leave the Gaza Strip, with a dubious guarantee of safe passage.
Complementing its violations of the agreement, Israel's genocidal incitement against the Palestinians continued apace, reaching a crescendo in February when it received the bodies of two young Israeli children, which, as recently confirmed by Israel's former defense minister, the international fugitive Yoav Gallant, Israel knew were dead since late 2023 but pretended were still alive for propaganda purposes. Hamas had at the time claimed they were killed in an Israeli air strike, which is consistent with the deaths of other Israeli captives. Yet the Israeli government in record time claimed that autopsies revealed they had been brutally strangled to death. No similar cases have been reported, and no independent foreign examination was conducted prior to burial.
When the weekly Israeli-Palestinian captive exchanges stipulated in the January agreement's first phase were fulfilled, Hamas announced that it would not release additional captives unless negotiations for the second phase were first concluded. Israel responded with a proposal to extend the first phase of the agreement during which the exchange of captives would be concluded. This would allow it to avoid the second phase and specifically a formal ceasefire or withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and essentially transform what had been agreed in January beyond recognition.
Apparently frustrated with Israel's intransigence and obstructionism, Washington dispatched its hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, to engage directly with Hamas. The talks focused on the release of captives and corpses with dual US citizenship, a priority for Washington. Seeking to show flexibility and eager to drive a wedge between Israel and the US, Hamas offered to extend the first phase of the agreement to encompass those with US citizenship, but on condition that serious negotiations on the second phase immediately commence.
Boehler's efforts rang alarm bells throughout the Israeli leadership for multiple reasons. Not only did the US for the first time engage directly with Hamas, but it had done so without consulting or coordinating with Israel, and did so to secure US rather than Israeli interests. Adding insult to injury, Boehler in press interviews observed that his Hamas interlocutors were human beings rather than animals, did not have horns growing out of their heads, and were in his opinion “pretty nice guys". He then committed the cardinal sin of pointing out, “We're the United States. We're not an agent of Israel".
The talks had come to light because an outraged Israel had leaked them to its media stenographers. Although Boehler, who has a much narrower mandate than Witkoff, appears to have concluded his business and subsequently left, and retains the confidence of Trump, Israeli sources – determined to convert hope into reality – began reporting that he had been fired for his unspeakable transgressions.
By this point, and contrary to its January obligations, Israel resumed its siege of the Gaza Strip on the last day of the first phase, additionally prohibiting the entry of fuel, electricity, and water into the territory. Never losing an opportunity to justify their systemic sadism with callous mockery, Israeli spokespeople duly insisted that Israeli munificence risked fueling an obesity epidemic in the Gaza Strip.
Seeking to mollify its Israeli proxy, Washington proposed an extension of the first phase of the January agreement through the end of Passover on 20 April, during which a further captive exchange would include Israelis who do not have dual citizenship. While Hamas was prepared to accept a limited extension of the first phase, it refused to do so without first agreeing the details of Palestinian captives to be released, and guarantees that negotiations on the second phase would commence immediately. More attuned to Netanyahu's political sensitivities and coalition calculus than to the details of an agreement he had himself ironed out, Witkoff rejected these conditions and warned Hamas of severe consequences.
In a related development, the US naval task force in the Red Sea has commenced with an open-ended bombing campaign on Yemen in response to threats by AnsarAllah, the Houthis, to resume attacks on Israeli shipping if the siege of the Gaza Strip is not lifted. It's essentially an operation to make the Red Sea safe for Israeli genocide. The Houthis have responded with a vow to retaliate against US military and commercial vessels, while Washington has pointed a finger directly at Iran. A few degrees of escalation more, and Israel's wet dream of a direct US-Iranian military confrontation may become a reality.
Israeli intentions are quite clear. To derail the agreement, and replace it with either an ongoing campaign of periodic attacks, or a more concerted effort to force the Palestinians out of Gaza, an item that Trump's harebrained Gaza Riviera proposal has placed back on the agenda. Israel's new chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, is also keen to prove that he can achieve with intense slaughter what his predecessor, Herzi Halevi, failed to realize. It continues a long Israeli pattern of addressing political challenges with violence, and concluding failure means insufficient carnage was inflicted.
The US position is less clear. Indisputably, none of this would be happening without Washington's approval. But what remains to be seen is whether it sees this as an effort to compel Hamas to accept US revisions to the January agreement, or rather the beginning of a full-scale resumption of the genocidal military campaign to achieve larger objectives unrelated to these negotiations.
In the meantime, hundreds of Palestinians, including, once again, entire families spanning multiple generations, are being slaughtered at will. Israel's impunity, to do as it pleases without a shred of accountability and zero consequences, continues apace.