As global military spending has hit record levels (up 37 per cent over the last decade and expected to further increase, notably across Europe), and international norms and institutions corrode, peace is paying the price. Decades of consensus on what sustains peace – inclusivity, justice and addressing root causes – are being eroded, as securitised and marketised conceptions of peace take hold. Transactional mediation thrives in this environment, resting on short-sighted elite bargains, zero-sum calculations and material concessions that placate armed actors and reassure allies. Such bargains rarely include broader constituencies or address justice claims, tend to disregard multilateral norms and are often tied to securitised protections.
Meanwhile, conflict continues to rise (56 wars in 2024, the highest number since the Second World War) and internationalise (with almost half of the world’s states, 92, involved in wars beyond their borders). The paralysis of the UN Security Council (UNSC) reflects and compounds this, as veto-wielding members are often parties or patrons to the very wars the UN is asked to mediate. This means deadlocked mandates, biased resolutions and little room for UN mediators to manoeuvre. Internationalised conflicts reduce incentives for compromise, drain legitimacy from UN-mediated talks and prolong war. Two particularly pernicious dynamics are driving this corrosive shift: elite economic pacts that trade access, revenues, or land for short-term stability (in theory) while excluding societies, and the trampling of international law – including humanitarian norms, human rights, territorial integrit, and accountability...