Societies can begin a process of transformation from one political system to another, but when and how transitions end is subject to many variables that are not necessarily within reach of those who start these processes. Violence is always a possible path for these transitions, even in the presence of negotiated peace agreements. In fact, only "one-third of the negotiated settlements of identity civil wars that last for five years 'stick,'" which means that two-thirds of civil wars that end with peace agreements are likely to revert to some form of violence in the following years.
The Arab Spring uprisings are not an exception to these findings. Ten years after their outbreaks (2011-2020), four countries (Syria, Libya, Yemen, Egypt) continue to experience violence, with Tunisia being the sole exception. Some regimes became even more entrenched, and external intervention became the rule that defined the political future of several of these countries. Other countries’ transitions produced more extreme forms of violence and terror than the region had ever experienced, such as the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). These wars even featured the use of weapons of mass destruction, like the chemical weapons used in Syria. Meanwhile, for the wars that have broken out in countries such as Libya, Yemen, and Syria—wars that have spilled over into other countries and enmeshed international parties—there appears to be no end in sight....
To cite: Fraihat, Ibrahim. "Avoiding Violence: The Six Principles for Successful Political Transitions." The Brown Journal of World Affairs Fall/Winter xxvii, no. 1 (2020): 167–81.