Resurgence of the M23 insurgent group: In 2021, a deal between DRC and Uganda enabling Uganda to upgrade and secure roads extending toward Goma, sparked tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa because it granted Ugandan forces (UPDF) access to a region of vital economic and security interest to Rwanda. This was a significant factor in Rwanda's decision to support the resurgence of the M23 insurgent group.
Prospects for mediation are undermined by the erosion of core norms: The obstacles faced by successive mediators illustrate the broader difficulties of crisis management in an international environment where the norms of territorial integrity and non-interference are weakening, encouraging de facto annexation of coveted territory.
Shift from International to Regional Leadership: While DRC's official entry into the East African Community (EAC) in 2021 facilitated a shift away from mediation by the UN to initiatives by the EAC and then the ICGLR, ultimately, neither regional nor Western powers were willing to pressure Kigali and Kinshasa into making concessions, and both the Nairobi and Luanda processes failed.
Inclusion and local ownership remain elusive: Norms of gender, youth, and local ownership have also faded, with the peace process remaining largely "top-down" and elitist, focusing on power-sharing between political and military leaders while excluding the voices of local communities, women, and civil society organizations.
Limited Prospects for Transformation: Given entrenched regional and international divisions and the belligerents' prevailing belief that they can continue to advance their interests through military force, mediation is likely to remain focused on achieving working ceasefires, addressing humanitarian needs, and preventing a broader regional conflict.