Dwindling Effectiveness of Peacemaking: Despite the increased need for mediation in a more violent, conflict-prone world, its effectiveness is declining: fewer peace agreements are being concluded, and fewer ceasefires are being negotiated than in previous decades.
Three Disruptive Global Trends: The job of the mediator has become more difficult due to the acceleration of multipolarity, the rise of radical Islamist armed actors, and a global wave of state-based ethnonationalism.
Decline of the "Liberal Peace" Model: The normative consensus that once promoted democratic transitions and human rights in peace deals is eroding, replaced in some cases by a "transactional" approach that prioritizes economic benefits over fundamental issues of rights and status.
Challenge of "Incompatibility": Conflicts involving radical religious or ethnonationalist ideologies are harder to mediate because the parties often view their goals as non-negotiable, making traditional compromise-based bargaining less likely.
Relevance of Cold War Lessons: To move forward, mediators can look to the "Hammarskjöldian" approach of the Cold War era: engaging with all parties (including the intransigent), maintaining a commitment to international law, and preventing local conflicts from being internationalized by great power rivalries.