Executive Summary
The migration-displacement-resource nexus in Afghanistan is a key component of the converging challenges that collectively threaten the country's social, economic and political fabric. The depleting water resources, particularly in big cities like Kabul, the growing patterns of displacement, and weak institutional capacity form a multilayered nexus which calls for solutions beyond the emergency and humanitarian context that characterise international policy on Afghanistan. Understanding this nexus and responding with policies that extend beyond short-term relief is essential if Afghanistan is to avoid deepening instability in the coming decade.
This report centres on water as a prime example of the most immediate concerns. In Kabul, groundwater levels have fallen by 25 to 30 metres in the past decade, with UN agencies projecting that the capital's aquifers could be exhausted by 2030. Such a development would place more than six million residents at risk of displacement, and threaten the largest hub of economic activity in the country. This is not a challenge confined to the capital: across the country, decades of underinvestment in infrastructure, coupled with the effects of climate change, have left Afghanistan with some of the lowest water-storage capacity in the region. Agriculture, which consumes more than 90 per cent of available water and employs nearly 40 per cent of the labour force. The agriculture sector is already under severe strain.
Displacement is not only a symptomatic driver of these pressures, but it is also a force multiplier. In 2023, Afghans represented 70 per cent of all internally displaced persons (IDPs) in South Asia, with the majority uprooted by droughts, floods, and other environmental shocks. At the same time, large-scale deportations from Iran and Pakistan have continued, resulting in the return of over 1.8 million Afghans in the first seven months of 2025 alone. The Taliban authorities, while seeking to demonstrate engagement through measures such as land allocation schemes, lack the resources and planning, and governance capacity to reintegrate returnees, or to provide sustainable support to the IDPs.
In addition to the broader analysis of the topic under study, the scenario-building exercise underpinning this paper considered three possible trajectories for the period 2025 – 2035. First, a continuation of current trends – 'business as usual' – would mean further groundwater depletion, growing socioeconomic inequality, and haphazard governance and policy responses. Second, a 'worst case' would involve resource exhaustion, widespread collapse of the food system leading to potential famine, political fragmentation, and the resurgence of transnational militancy. Third, a 'best case' – while aspirational – would entail improved governance, investment in sustainable water infrastructure, and constructive regional cooperation that begins to stabilise the displacement-resource nexus, leading to sustainable peace and longterm prosperity for Afghanistan.
Across these scenarios, several policy imperatives are clear. First, investment in water management is critical. Large-scale infrastructure – such as irrigation systems, storage facilities, and dams – must be accompanied by enforceable regulation and a shift towards sustainable farming practices that enable communities and farmers to benefit from agriculture. Second, reintegration of the IDPs – including those returned from neighbouring countries – cannot be addressed through piecemeal and temporary relief measures; it requires longterm programmes that need to improve prospects for employment, housing, and local economic development. Third, regional engagement is indispensable. Afghanistan's water resources are shared with its neighbours, and without cooperative arrangements, pressures will spill across borders and exacerbate both geopolitical and regional tensions.
In conclusion, this paper stresses that Afghanistan's crisis should not be viewed through a purely humanitarian lens. The nexus of migration, displacement, and resources is structural, not episodic, and demands coordinated, long-term responses. Without a shift away from emergency relief towards resilience-building, issues such as Kabul's projected water depletion and the wider pressures of climate change and forced returns will deepen socioeconomic vulnerability, contributing to the tide of migration flows. If unaddressed in the longterm, these dynamics are unlikely to remain as problems that are confined only to Afghanistan. They will affect Afghanistan's regional neighbours with implications beyond the countries along the Afghan border.
For international policymakers, particularly major Western donor countries, the focus needs to shift from whether to engage in Afghanistan to how effectively craft engagement. Supporting practical, technically focused interventions on issues such as water and reintegration challenges, while navigating the political complexities of working with the Taliban authorities, is likely to be the more viable path.
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